The Morning Hark - 14 May 2024
Today’s focus...Roaring Kitty is back. US PPI may see an outsize move. Other than that a Roaring Bore!
Overnight Highlights
Prices are at 6.40 BST/1.40 EST, with changes reflecting movement from midnight GMT
Oil - Oil trading up smalls in Asia with Brent and Crude July futures currently at 83.50 and 78.70.
Firmer tone in oil overall to start the week with the Iraqi oil minister claiming that they would adhere to any OPEC decision. In addition more reported Ukrainian strikes on Russian oilfields.
EQ - Asian equity markets very quiet overnight with the Hang Seng and Nikkei futures trading at 19,100 and 38,240.
The US indicies also unchanged in Asia, with the S&P and Nasdaq futures now at 5245 and 18,280 respectively.
Gold - Gold up a touch in Asia with the June futures trading currently at 2350.
FI - US yields unchanged overnight with currently the US2y futures trading at 4.86% whilst the US10y futures yield at 4.49%.
European yields closed unchanged with the German 10y closing at 2.52% and the Italian 10y yield at 3.82%.
UK gilt 10y closed up a touch at 4.22%.
FX - The USD unchanged overnight with the USD Index currently at 105.27. The majors now trading at; JPY, EUR and GBP 156.40, 1.0785 and 1.2555 respectively.
Today’s FX option expiries sees in the EUR; €1.5bn at 1.0750. In the AUD we have AUD2.4bn at 0.6590 and in GBP; £1.1bn at 1.25.
Others - Bitcoin and Ethereum back on the front foot again but still within its recent 60/65k range. The pair currently at 62,635 and 2945 respectively.
Macro Themes At Play
Recap
Roaring Kitty Returns! GME up. Little else………..sums it all up really
Central Bank Speakers
Fed’s Jefferson added little to the debate. Inflation has come down substantially from its peaks although he is concerned that the decline has attenuated. He reiterated that it is appropriate that the Fed maintain the policy rate in restrictive territory.
SNB’s Jordan was upbeat as he explained that the fight against inflation is far advanced and the outlook is much better.
The Day Ahead
Final read for the April German Inflation print shouldn’t get the pulses racing too much. UK Employment Report on the other hand, albeit for March, might spark some life into the week. The May ZEW Surveys conclude the morning business.
Afternoon we have US PPI for April as well as Powell. Throughout the day the usual array of central bank speakers.
One point to note. Unusually PPI released before CPI and given their decent correlation I’d expect perhaps a much larger market move on their release than usual.
Overnight the Australian Wages Data for q1 and as we go to pint the Swedish Inflation Report for April.
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Main Highlights Ahead
All times in BST (EST+5 / CET-1 / JST-9)
The main highlights for the day ahead ahead in terms of data and speakers:
Tuesday
Germany Inflation Rate MoM Final Apr consensus 0.5% vs previous 0.4% (07.00 BST)
Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final Apr consensus 2.2% vs previous 2.2% (07.00 BST)
UK Employment Change Mar consensus -215k vs previous -156k (07.00 BST)
UK Unemployment Rate Mar consensus 4.3% vs previous 4.2% (07.00 BST)
UK Average Earnings incl Bonus (3m/yr) Mar consensus 5.3% vs previous 5.6% (07.00 BST)
Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index May consensus 46.3 vs previous 42.9 (10.00 BST)
EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index May consensus 46.1 vs previous 43.9 (10.00 BST)
US PPI MoM Apr consensus 0.3% vs previous 0.2% (13.30 BST)
US PPI YoY Apr consensus 2.2% vs previous 2.1% (13.30 BST)
US Core PPI MoM Apr consensus 0.2% vs previous 0.2% (13.30 BST)
US Core PPI YoY Apr consensus 2.4% vs previous 2.4% (13.30 BST)
Fed Speakers
Cook (14.10 BST)
Powell (15.00 BST)
ECB Speakers
Schnabel (14.15 BST)
Knot (15.00 BST)
BoE Speakers
Pill (08.30 BST)
Early Wednesday
Australia Wage Price Index QoQ q1 consensus 0.9% vs previous 0.9% (02.30 BST)
Australia Wage Price Index YoY q1 consensus 4.2% vs previous 4.2% (02.30 BST)
Sweden Inflation Rate MoM Apr consensus % vs previous 0.1% (07.00 BST)
Sweden Inflation Rate YoY Apr consensus 4% vs previous 4.1% (07.00 BST)
Sweden CPIF MoM Apr consensus 0.4% vs previous 0.1% (07.00 BST)
Sweden CPIF YoY Apr consensus 2.4% vs previous 2.2% (07.00 BST)
Good luck.
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