The Morning Hark - 11 June 2024
Today’s focus...Little to excite…….get some rest for tomorrow
Overnight Highlights
Prices are at 6.35 BST/1.35 EST, with changes reflecting movement from midnight GMT
Oil - Oil steady in Asia with Brent and Crude August futures currently at 81.60 and 77.30 but holding onto their decent gains from yesterday. Lot of optimism yesterday over the upcoming holiday season and the boost that could give oil.
EQ - Asian equity markets quiet again with the Hang Seng and Nikkei futures trading steady at 18,010 and 39,170 respectively.
The US indicies similarly dull with the S&P and Nasdaq futures now at 5365 and 19,090 respectively.
Gold - Gold off smalls in Asia with the August futures trading currently at 2317.
FI - US yields coming off a touch overnight with the US2y futures trading at 4.88% whilst the US10y futures yield at 4.46%.
European yields starting the week with a bid tone after the European Elections and subsequent Macron election gamble. The German 10y closing at 2.68% and the Italian 10y yield at 4.09%.
UK gilt 10y at 4.33%.
FX - The USD back into the flat zone in Asia with the USD Index currently at 105.13. The majors now trading at; JPY, EUR and GBP 157.30, 1.0770 and 1.2735 respectively.
No major FX option expiries of significance today.
Others - Bitcoin and Ethereum revisited those Asian red candles again with a sell off right on the open which neither have not recovered from. Presently the pair at 67,900 and 3562 respectively.
Macro Themes At Play
Recap
Recap
Norway’s Inflation Report for May was broadly in line with the Norges Bank’s expectations with core YoY coming in at 4.1% (4.2% Norges). Headline had a similar pattern with a 3% YoY print (Norges 3.2%). Nevertheless it remains still too high for the Bank to consider cutting rates for some time albeit the direction of travel is positive.
Central Bank Speakers
ECB’s Kazaks was again stressing that future rate cuts dependent on economic outlook.
Kazimir felt that the ECB could enjoy the summer without hurrying on rates. September will be a pivotal month.
Nagel stressed the need for caution with future rate moves.
Lagarde stated that the ECB could keep rates on hold for as long needed. Rates are not necessarily on a linear declining path, there might be periods when we hold.
The Day Ahead
Little to excite again today with the UK Labour Report for April, as we go to print, the only data release. Couple of ECB speakers no doubt rolling out the usual stuff.
Early doors tomorrow sees the China Inflation Report for May. Also as we go to print the final German Inflation print for May and the UK Data Dump.
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Main Highlights Ahead
All times in BST (EST+5 / CET-1 / JST-9)
The main highlights for the day ahead ahead in terms of data and speakers:
Tuesday
UK Employment Change April consensus -100k vs previous -178k (07.00 BST)
UK Unemployment Rate April consensus 4.3% vs previous 4.3% (07.00 BST)
UK Average Earnings incl Bonus 3m/yr April consensus 5.7% vs previous 5.7% (07.00 BST)
UK Average Earnings excl Bonus 3m/yr April consensus 6% vs previous 6% (07.00 BST)
ECB Speakers
Buch (08.30 BST)
Lane (12.00 BST)
Elderson (17.45 BST)
Early Wednesday
China Inflation Rate MoM May consensus % vs previous 0.1% (02.30 BST)
China Inflation Rate YoY May consensus 0.3% vs previous 0.3% (02.30 BST)
Germany Inflation Rate MoM Final May consensus 0.1% vs previous 0.5% (07.00 BST)
Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final May consensus 2.4% vs previous 2.2% (07.00 BST)
UK GDP MoM Apr consensus 0% vs previous 0.4% (07.00 BST)
UK GDP 3m Avg Apr consensus 0.7% vs previous 0.6% (07.00 BST)
UK GDP YoY Apr consensus 0.6% vs previous 0.7% (07.00 BST)
UK Industrial Production MoM Apr consensus -0.1% vs previous 0.2% (07.00 BST)
UK Industrial Production YoY Apr consensus 0.3% vs previous 0.5% (07.00 BST)
UK Manufacturing Production MoM Apr consensus -0.2% vs previous 0.3% (07.00 BST)
UK Manufacturing Production YoY Apr consensus 1.6% vs previous 0.2.3% (07.00 BST)
Good luck.
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